RBI Announces Monetary Measures

By Vijay Kumar

Important developments have taken place in recent weeks with regard to inflation. To assess these developments, it is important to recognise the key forces at work. The escalation in inflation last week mainly reflects the pass-through of international crude prices to domestic prices effected on June 5, 2008 . Unlike in some mature economies, however, the pass-through is not occurring on a continuous basis in developing economies including India . Thus, the policy response to the escalation in crude prices could be somewhat similar to other countries but tailored to suit our conditions.

Besides oil prices, there are some underlying inflationary pressures impacting inflation in India . Inflation, based on variations in the wholesale price index ( WPI ) on a year-on-year basis, increased to 11.05 per cent as on June 7, 2008 from 7.75 per cent at end-March 2008 and 4.28 per cent a year ago. Excluding the fuel sub-group, inflation rose to 9.61 per cent from 5.92 per cent a year ago. Excluding fuel and food, inflation was 10.33 per cent as against 6.33 per cent in the corresponding period of the preceding year. Inflation based on the consumer price index ( C PI ) for industrial workers ( IW ) and urban non-manual employees ( UNME ) stood at 7.81 per cent and 6.99 per cent, respectively, on a year-on-year basis in April 2008 as compared with 6.67 per cent and 7.74 per cent a year ago. Inflation based on CPI for agricultural labourers (AL) and rural labourers ( RL ) stood at 9.11 per cent and 8.84 per cent in May 2008, respectively, as compared with 8.22 per cent and 7.90 per cent a year ago. Therefore, it is important to recognise that an adjustment of overall aggregate demand on an economy-wide basis is warranted to ensure that generalised instability does not develop and erodes the hard-earned gains in terms of both outcomes of and positive sentiments on India's growth momentum.

At this juncture, the overriding priority for monetary policy is to eschew any further intensification of inflationary pressures and to firmly anchor inflation expectations. Several positive factors that currently exist need to be recognised. Relative to several other emerging economies, the Indian economy has, by and large, a reasonable supply-demand balance which provides some insulation in managing this unprecedented shock from global oil markets. Domestic financial markets and institutions have been largely secured against the contagion from the unsettled conditions in international financial markets. Furthermore, India is somewhat de-coupled from the intensifying global food crisis in view of the improvement in domestic agricultural performance. The external sector is strong and resilient with modest current account deficits relative to the size of the economy and has a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves. Accordingly, the major focus of public policy at the current juncture needs to be on dealing with the impact of the escalation of international crude prices in a well-managed and smooth adjustment that draws on demonstrated strengths and positive outcomes. Moderating and managing aggregate demand so that pressures on prices are not intensified is a critical element of this approach.

In this regard, monetary policy has to urgently address aggregate demand pressures which appear to be strongly in evidence. First, inflation has increased to a 13-year high and inflation expectations have been driven up by unrelenting pressures from international commodity prices, particularly crude and metals. Second, investment demand continues to be strong, growing in the range of 14-19 per cent annually since 2002-03 and currently constituting 36 per cent of GDP . This is also reflected in the pick-up in the growth of domestic capital goods production in April 2008 after some deceleration in January-March. Furthermore, consumption demand appears to be reviving the production of consumer goods, with a turnaround in the production of durables. Third, with merchandise imports running ahead of exports, the trade deficit widened sizeably in 2007-08 and has continued to expand in April 2008. Although large oil imports appear to be the main driver, non-oil imports have also increased at a considerable pace, contributing more than 60 per cent of the overall import growth in April 2008 and reflecting the pressure of domestic demand. There has also been some tightening of external financing conditions in the ongoing global financial turmoil. Fourth, fiscal pressures are emerging due to the possibility of enhanced subsidies on account of food, fertiliser and POL as well as for financing deferred liabilities relating to farm loan waivers with implications for additional pressures on aggregate demand, and with potential spillovers into the external sector.

Consistent with the stance of monetary policy and on the basis of incoming information on domestic and global macroeconomic and financial developments, RBI has decided to take the following measures:

(a) The repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility ( LAF ) is increased from 8.00 per cent to 8.50 per cent with immediate effect.

(b) The cash reserve ratio ( C RR ) of the scheduled commercial banks, regional rural banks ( RRBs ), scheduled state co-operative banks and scheduled primary (urban) co-operative banks is being increased by 50 basis points to 8.75 per cent in two stages, effective from specified fortnights as indicated below: