RBI Reduces CRR
ON the basis of an assessment of the current macroeconomic situation, RBI has decided to:
++ reduce the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 basis points from 4.75 per cent to 4.50 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning September 22, 2012. Consequently, around Rs. 170 billion of primary liquidity will be injected into the banking system; and
++ keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 8.0 per cent. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 7.0 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 9.0 per cent
The state of the economy is far from rosy.
++ Economic activity picked up modestly in Q1 of 2012-13 in relation to the preceding quarter; but the sluggish momentum of value added in Q1 was evident across all sectors of the economy, and particularly in industry. Lead indicators point to slack activity in Q2 as well. Industrial production rose by just 0.1 per cent in July. In August, the manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level during 2012 so far, as a result of output disruptions due to power shortages and declining export orders.
++ Headline WPI inflation (y-o-y) has remained sticky at around 7.5 per cent throughout the current financial year so far. At the disaggregated level, within primary food articles, the easing of vegetable prices in July-August was to a large extent offset by the surge in prices of cereals and pulses. Demand-supply imbalances in respect of protein-rich items persist. Fuel price inflation picked up in August, largely reflecting the upward revision in electricity prices. As welcome as the recent hike in diesel prices/rationalisation of LPG subsidy has been, the pass-through to administered prices remains incomplete.
++ Money supply (M 3), bank credit and deposits have moderated in relation to their indicative trajectories, reflecting the slowing down of economic activity. Against this backdrop, liquidity conditions have remained comfortable since the FQR (First Quarter Review). However, going forward, the wedge between deposit growth and credit growth could widen on the back of the seasonal pick-up in credit demand in the second half of the year. This, combined with outflows on account of advance tax payments and the onset of festival-related currency demand, could accentuate pressures on liquidity over the next few weeks.
++ While the trade deficit narrowed in the first five months of 2012-13, the relatively large fall of exports in July-August is indicative of risks to the current account from the worsening global outlook. As regards external financing, the moderation in FDI inflows was partly compensated by a surge in non-resident deposits and a renewal of FIIs flows in recent months. Consequently, the rupee has been trading in a narrow range since the FQR. Looking ahead, a moderation in the trade deficit combined with increased inflows in response to domestic policy developments could ease pressures on the balance of payments.