World Trade - despite 2010 record surge, crisis hangover persists - Lamy
FOLLOWING the record-breaking 14.5% surge in the volume of exports in 2010 world trade growth should settle to a more modest 6.5% expansion in 2011. The sharp rise in trade volumes last year enabled world trade to recover to its pre-crisis level but not its long-term trend and WTO economists believe the recent series of important events around the world lend a greater degree of uncertainty to any forecast.
WTO Director General, yesterday said, “The figures show how trade has helped the world escape recession in 2010; However, the hangover from the financial crisis is still with us. High unemployment in developed economies and sharp belt-tightening in Europe will keep fuelling protectionist pressures. WTO Members must continue to be vigilant and resist these pressures and to work toward opening markets rather than closing them. “Stability” should be the name of the game for 2011”.
The 14.5% rise was the largest annual figure in the present data series which began in 1950 and was buoyed by a 3.6% recovery in global output. It was a rebound from the 12% slump in 2009, returning trade to the 2008 peak level and to more normal rates of expansion. Nevertheless, the financial crisis and global recession continue to have an impact.
For 2011, the economists are forecasting a more modest 6.5% increase, but with uncertainty about the impact of a number of recent events, including the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. If achieved, this would be higher than the 6.0% average yearly increase between 1990 and 2008.
The short-term outlook is clouded by a number of significant risks factors in addition to the catastrophes in Japan. These include rising prices for food and other primary products, and unrest in major oil exporting countries. Adverse developments in any of these areas could potentially set back the economic recovery and limit the expansion of trade in the coming year.
The full impact of the Japanese disaster is particularly difficult to gauge since it is complicated by a simultaneous nuclear incident, which is hampering relief and rebuilding efforts. The limited amount of research on the economic consequences of natural disasters suggests, however, that the trade impact should be relatively small, especially in the in the medium-to-long term.
China's exports increased in 2010 by a massive 28% in volume terms.